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Systemic vulnerabilities, MIL, disinformation threats: Preliminary Risk Assessment ahead of the 2024 European elections

As the 2024 European Parliament elections approach, this Risk Assessment report is aimed at analyzing the interconnected landscape of systemic vulnerabilities and specific electoral risks, which together with the pervasive challenge of disinformation pose significant threats to electoral integrity and public discourse across the European Union. This report highlights the critical nature of these challenges in shaping public opinion, voter
behavior and, ultimately, the democratic discourse across Europe.

Based on existing research, documents and operative frameworks, as well as the evaluations of the EDMO Task Force on European Elections, the findings spotlight the risks related to the structural weaknesses within the media ecosystem, non-compliance with campaign regulations (especially online), specific risks related to the upcoming elections and the perils of dissemination of disinformation, through recurring narratives and new techniques. In addition, cyber threats to voting infrastructure pose a direct danger to the security and authenticity of election results, as well as a potential hook for disinformation campaigns aimed at suggesting election rigging.