This article was originally published by Re:Baltica. Organizations that contributed to this investigation: Re:Baltica (Latvia), Delfi (Estonia), Delfi (Lithuania)
This summer, misinformation that those in power are trying to drag the Baltic countries into a war against Russia intensified, especially in Lithuania and Estonia. Governments are allegedly considering sending troops to Ukraine, in Lithuania the foreign minister and his family are leaving the country, while Latvia is provoking its eastern neighbor with threats of a nuclear war. In this article, we explain who and how are spreading these falsehoods in the Baltic countries.
“Lithuania to send 100 troops to Ukraine”
In the spring of this year, French President Emmanuel Macron repeatedly said that under the right circumstances NATO troops could be sent to Ukraine. This was followed by a wave of disinformation in a number of European countries, both about Macron and about Russia-related plans that NATO countries allegedly have. This is also what happened in Lithuania. Following Macron’s statements, Lithuanian politicians, including Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė and Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis (both represent the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats), started discussing the possibility of sending Lithuanian instructors to Ukraine to train the country’s soldiers. Almost all statements by senior Lithuanian officials regarding the possible training mission were interpreted as calls for war, according to Aistė Meidutė, fact-checker for the Lithuanian website Delfi. Politicians’ insistence that the country would not initiate such a mission, as it would require the involvement of larger countries such as France, was ignored.
“However, disinformation spreaders re-interpreted these claims in a different light claiming that Lithuanian politicians are ready to send Lithuanian troops directly into the warzone”, Meidutė explains. For example, one of the fake news websites said that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico had supposedly confirmed that Lithuania and other countries would send troops to Ukraine. Even though Fico said that several EU and NATO member countries were considering this possibility, he did not mention any specific country.
Shortly after that, it was falsely claimed on Lithuanian social media that the Lithuanian parliament, Seimas, had secretly decided to send 100 troops to the Ukrainian front lines. The originator of the news was Valdas Tutkus, a former chief of defense and a candidate for Lithuania’s president. It was he who posted on social media that the Seimas had voted in favor of sending Lithuanian troops to Ukraine.
In reality, Seimas adopted a decision setting the number of troops that could be deployed on international operations and missions. The resolution establishes that up to 100 soldiers and civilian staff may take part in a training operation in Ukraine.
“Estonian mercenaries are already at war”
Estonian Delfi fact-checker Marta Vunsh explains that in Estonia the narrative that Baltic countries or Estonia are allegedly preparing to go to war with Russia is intertwined with messages of ceasefire, “we want peace” and “not supporting Ukraine is better for Estonia”.
In Estonia too, various misconceptions spread after French President Macron’s remarks. Portal Eestinen claimed that France had decided to move its troops to Ukraine and start a war with Russia. This led to speculation that Estonia had similar plans to send its troops to the front line.
This narrative was pushed in the past as well. For instance, an article was published on the Estonian fake news website Telegram, saying that the country’s Defence Forces could send troops to the battlefront in Ukraine. The website had become popular during the COVID-19 pandemic. This time, the misleading news story referred to an article by Postimees. However, the article did not mention Ukraine: it was about a proposed plan to involve volunteer reservists in other foreign operations. On social media, this lie was reinforced by posts saying that Estonian men would be sent to the “Ukrainian meat grinder”. Estonian Delfi fact-checkers found similar messages in at least eight social media posts.
In the meantime, Estonian social media users shared a false table from the Russian Defense Ministry describing the numbers of “mercenaries” allegedly sent from different countries to Ukraine.
But the fact is that neither Estonia, Latvia, nor Lithuania is sending troops to Ukraine. When Baltic nationals fight in Ukraine, they do so voluntarily.
“Latvia is ready to take part in the big war”
In Latvia, claims about the supposed plans to send residents to fight in Ukraine have not gained much traction and have not been shared all that much on social media. However, such attempts to scare people do exist. Shortly before the European Parliament elections, Andrejs Kozlovs, a MEP candidate from the party For Stability!, went on TikTok to claim the following in Russian: “A high-ranking Latvian official declared a few days ago that Latvia was ready to take part in a big war and use its army”. In the video he also pointed to a children’s playground in the background and says that “many Latvian politicians want to turn these into bomb shelters”. In the video, Kozlovs did not provide any evidence. He did not respond to Re:Check’s phone calls or text messages.
“The youth and women are being prepared for war”
Statements by the Chief of Defense of Latvia Leonīds Kalniņš that both men and women should be compulsorily drafted into the National Armed Forces were also accompanied by frightening slogans. Currently, women can serve on a voluntary basis. The opposition party’s For Stability! official TikTok page and its leader’s Aleksejs Rosļikovs Telegram channel posted claims in Russian that “girls” in the army would help with using the funds. “The politics of war is too attractive and our elite is all in”, one such video says. Another video posted to TikTok and Facebook said that the matter had already been decided. He said that “now they will forcibly draft girls and prepare them for the front lines, for war”.
Meanwhile, the number of fake news stories in Lithuania increased after the country’s parliament approved a military service reform. It establishes compulsory conscription of young people after they graduate from high school. Following this decision, rumors began to spread on Lithuania’s social media that Lithuanians would have to fight in Ukraine.
“Lithuanian minister and his family preparing to leave the country”
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis became a target of Russian disinformation. Lithuanian MP Aurelijus Veryga (Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union) asked him a rhetorical question about where the minister and his family were planning to move. Afterward, rumors swirled on social media that Landsbergis’s wife was selling her private school business and planning to leave Lithuania. Even though the company’s spokeswoman denied the rumors of a possible sale of the business, this claim was picked up by Kremlin disinformation outlets, which kept saying that “rats were leaving the sinking ship” and that Lithuania would eventually be dragged into the war or get attacked by Russia.
TikTok spreads fear of war in Estonia
In Estonia, pro-Russia TikTok accounts scaremonger about the country’s involvement in war. One now-suspended TikTok user presented an alleged quote by former Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, that Estonia did not want peace talks with Russia and that Estonia wanted war and victory. Kallas had said no such thing; what she stated was that Ukraine must win this war.
Estonian journalists also conducted an experiment by creating a new TikTok account. Estonian Delfi fact-checker Vunsh explains that in just one hour, the TikTok algorithm offered them almost a hundred fake posts, Russian war propaganda, and war-mongering videos to spread fear. For example, one of the posts asked: “Will you go to war if there is a war in Estonia?”. The video became quite popular in Estonia garnering more than 46,000 views.
Nuclear weapons or “is Latvia choosing death?”
In Latvia, fake news peddlers and pro-Kremlin activists were trying to make people anxious by raising the alarm about a signature drive on the public initiative platform Manabalss.lv. The website allows Latvian citizens to submit their legislative proposals, and, if one is signed by 10,000 or more, it has to be considered by the Latvian parliament, Saeima.
The authors of this particular initiative propose to call on allies to deploy nuclear weapons in Latvia. At the time of writing, only 400 people had signed the initiative. This though did not stop the criminal organization Baltic Antifascists from claiming on their Telegram channel that “Latvians were signing a nuclear suicide petition”. Last year, The Latvian State Security Service turned to the prosecutor’s office and asked to prosecute six persons for running Baltic Antifascists and participating in crimes committed by the organization. The State Security Service determined that they were illegally collecting classified information about the developments in Latvia in order to hand it over to the Russian secret services, as well as praising and attempting to justify Russia’s war in Ukraine, and raising funds to support the Russian army in Ukraine. The Telegram channel has more than 20,000 followers. Meanwhile, another social media user’s comment about the initiative on Facebook says: “Is Latvia choosing death?”. The TikToker Iļja Černogorods also known as Magnuss, who has 4.5 million likes, also weighed in on the issue. A short video posted by the blogger, titled “NATO nuclear weapons in Latvia”, criticizes the authors of the initiative for causing controversy. Magnuss offers instead to “live peacefully for a change”. This video has more than 56,000 views on TikTok. The blogger regularly criticizes the government by reposting refuted content made by opposition parties for the Russian-speaking audience.
In summary, there is no reason at the moment to claim that the Baltic governments are preparing to send their armies to Ukraine or otherwise wage war against Russia. Nevertheless, fake news sources, including pro-Kremlin bloggers, are using every bit of information to scare the public into believing that this is exactly what will happen.
Annija Petrova, journalist at Re:Baltica/Re:Check