Romania’s elections overview – 3 May 2025
This Bulletin is produced and published by Funky Citizens, Member of the Bulgarian-Romanian Observatory of Digital Media (BROD) and the EDMO Fact-Checking Network.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Romania approaches its presidential election with overseas voting already underway since Friday, while domestic voting begins in less than 24 hours. The electoral campaign officially ended at midnight, initiating the electoral silence period. Recent polls show George Simion leading with 31%, followed by Crin Antonescu (25%) and Nicușor Dan (23%) competing for the second runoff position. Significant disinformation narratives have emerged, including false claims about power blackouts and ballot shortages at diaspora voting stations, both officially refuted by authorities. Diaspora voter turnout is twice times higher than previous elections. Digital manipulation concerns include a network of cloned websites mimicking official institutions, utilizing AI-generated content with reported Russian links.
WEEKLY OVERVIEW
As we approach the start of the election day in Romania, diaspora voting for the Romanian elections began yesterday, Friday, marking the start of the electoral process. We are now less than 24 hours away from the start of voting within Romania itself. The electoral campaign officially concluded today at midnight, bringing an end to the period of active campaigning by candidates and political parties. This moment marks the beginning of the electoral silence period, during which campaign activities are prohibited to allow voters a neutral environment for decision-making.
In the final days before the presidential elections, several significant disinformation narratives have emerged on social media platforms, requiring official responses from government authorities. Energy Minister Sebastian Burduja has refuted widespread claims circulating online about an imminent blackout during the first round of elections. These false messages suggest power outages would be used to invalidate the election results and have even prompted calls for citizens to withdraw money from banks. Another disinformation narrative circulating concerns alleged ballot shortages at diaspora voting stations. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has officially refuted these claims, stating they are entirely false and constitute a deliberate attempt to manipulate voters before the election..
As of 16:00, over 251,500 Romanians have voted abroad in the first round of the presidential elections. This represents twice as many voters compared to the similar election in November 2024, when by Saturday at 16:00, the number of votes cast at polling stations abroad was 125,126. The government has modified voting hours for overseas polling stations, which will now close at 21:00 Romania time on Sunday, May 4th, affecting Romanians in most countries except those in the same time zone as Romania (such as Greece, Bulgaria, and Moldova). Diaspora polling stations operate Friday, May 2nd and Saturday, May 3rd from 7:00 to 21:00 local time; on Sunday, May 4th, voting begins at 7:00 and ends at local time 21:00, but no later than 21:00 Romania time.
The final polls before the election show a tight race for the second position in the runoff. The latest poll by AtlasIntel shows George Simion leading with 31%, followed by Crin Antonescu at 25% and Nicușor Dan at 23%. Victor Ponta trails at 11.6%, and Elena Lasconi at 6.5%. Other recent polls show similar trends, with Simion consistently in the lead, while Antonescu, Dan, and Ponta compete for the second position in varied orders depending on the polling company. The Sociopol poll shows Ponta performing better at 22%, while Noi Cetățenii’s survey gives Dan a stronger position at 26.5%.
A major political controversy emerged when USR presidential candidate Elena Lasconi published photos on Facebook (May 1st) allegedly showing Nicușor Dan, former SRI deputy director Florian Coldea, and Victor Ponta. The images show individuals resembling these political figures exiting the same building, though in separate shots. Lasconi stated she received these photos via email and wanted to see if Nicușor Dan Dan would publicly acknowledge other meetings with Florian Coldea. Journalists from Buletin de București later identified the building as a private residence in Tunari, Ilfov County, which is available for rent on platforms like Airbnb and Booking. The Central Electoral Bureau (BEC) ruled Friday that Lasconi’s post should not be removed, following a complaint from Nicușor Dan, who also subsequently filed a criminal complaint with DIICOT against Lasconi, accusing her of computer fraud, deception, and altering digital content.
ANCOM has identified a network of cloned websites mimicking official pages of public institutions and media outlets (including the Government, Ministry of Health, TVR 1, DIGI24, and others). These sites promote misleading content on social, political, economic, and health topics to deceive the population. The operation is sophisticated, using AI-generated content, targeting vulnerable audiences, and employing malicious advertisements on clickbait websites. Several advertising companies with reported links to Russia (Adskeeper, Geozo, Adnow, and MGID) are involved.
Three presidential debates were organized on April 28-30. The first debate was hosted by Digi24 on April 28, featuring a smaller panel with Crin Antonescu, Nicușor Dan, and Elena Lasconi. At the debate, Simion made a brief appearance only to announce his withdrawal, claiming he could not participate when last year’s presidential elections were “unjustifiably annulled.” Before leaving, he presented a bouquet of white roses to USR president Elena Lasconi. The second debate, organized by TVR on April 29, included 10 of the 11 candidates, with AUR’s George Simion notably absent. The final debate on April 30, hosted by Antena 3 CNN, had reduced participation with only 7 of 11 candidates attending, with both Victor Ponta and George Simion among those absent. Factual has monitored candidates’ statements live throughout all three debates, and their fact-checking conclusions can be found at the end of this brief.
For the 2025 presidential elections, BEC has accredited three polling companies to conduct exit polls on election day (Sunday, May 4th): Avangarde, CURS, and ARA Public Opinion. Their first results will be announced at 21:00 when polling stations close.
AUR’s first vice-president Marius Lulea claims the party reported zero online spending for George Simion’s presidential campaign because invoices were issued later. Context.ro reported Tuesday that AUR declared zero expenditures for online and press campaign activities. Last year in November, the Permanent Electoral Authority notified prosecutors and police to investigate Călin Georgescu’s campaign financing after he reported zero electoral expenses.
SOCIAL MEDIA DISINFORMATION
Within this reporting period, it’s noteworthy to say that reporting based on the current methodology was suspended, in favor of a manual targeting approach in collecting data, given that the elections draw closer and that certain negative phenomena were identified. As a consequence, the methodology of collection and analysis differs between the posts reported before and after the 1st of May.
The most prevalent type or reported posts were showing footage from voting booths, others featured claims of election rigging, calls to resume or repeat the second round of elections, accusations of government crimes or a coup d’état, and claims that Călin Georgescu is or will be president.
The most frequent code, “Voting booth footage,” involves videos depicting how people voted, breaching electoral legislation (Art. 389 Penal Code: Violation of the secrecy of the vote (1) Violation by any means of the secrecy of the vote is punishable by a fine). “Election rigging claims” frame the electoral process as manipulated or predetermined, while “Resumption of 2nd tour” promotes the idea of redoing the elections to restore supposed democratic integrity. Posts coded as “Govt. crimes, coup d’état” contain accusations of severe misconduct by the government, expressed through dramatic and alarmist rhetoric. The narrative “C.G. as President” centres around false or speculative assertions that Călin Georgescu will either run for president, was already elected and confirmed or that he will be confirmed as president.
Some of the narratives were present in previous reporting periods, while the narratives featured on the 1st and 2nd of May contained blatantly illegal content, making them a collection and reporting priority.
“Voting booth footage” included videos depicting how individuals voted, showing the completed ballot or the voting process inside polling stations. “Elect. rigging claims” present claims that the election was or will be manipulated. They describe how the electoral process is predetermined, corrupted, or controlled by hidden powers or the Romanian state. The detection, collection and reporting of this type of posts was prioritized starting the 1st of May, given their illegal nature and potential impact on the electoral process.
Regarding the narratives carried over from previous reporting periods, “Resumption of the 2nd tour” narratives either called for a repetition or continuation of the second round of the presidential election or claimed that this is an already established fact based on internal and external injunctions. They framed this as a democratic necessity or a path to reclaiming national integrity. This narrative was boosted after a judge in the Ploiesti Court of Appeal issued a favorable decision to annul the Constitutional Court’s election annulment, a decision which was subsequently annulled. From a quantitative point of view, the frequency of this narrative increased within the collected corpus compared to previous periods.
Closely related to themes connected with the resumption of the 2nd tour, “Parallel state plot against C.G.” and “Intl. pressure to let C.G. run” all center around former candidate Călin Georgescu, portraying him as not only being a viable option for the electorate within the current electoral process but being supported by the U.S. or Russia. Another similar theme was “C.G. as President”, which brough together narratives coded as “C.G. is president”, “C.G. will run for president”. This narrative portrays Călin Georgescu as either the acting president, or as a viable option on the electoral lists on voting day. The frequency of the dissemination of these narratives appears to be decreasing within this reporting period.
The ”Govt. crimes, coup d’état” narrative covers discourses accusing the government of serious misconduct, such as staging a coup d’etat through the annulment of last year’s electoral process and committing criminal acts against its own people. These claims typically use dramatic language or images and portray the state as illegitimate or tyrannical government, in conjunction with foreign or domestic inquiries into said alleged misconduct and the imminence of the arrest of key officials and politicians. From a quantitative point of view, this narrative’s dissemination frequency remained the same during this reporting period, compared to the previous ones.
Several strands of smearing narratives were identified, mainly using A.I. or foto/video editing in order to negatively portray candidates. These mainly targeted Dan, Antonescu, Lasconi and Ponta, with Dan and Antonescu the most targeted.
Some narratives were also aimed at minorities, with “Jewish plot against RO” antisemitic narratives that allege a “Soros” conspiracy to control or harm Romania. At the same time, “Ethnic parties threat RO” portrayed Hungarian ethnic political figures and the UDMR party as a danger to Romanian national identity and territorial integrity.
At the same time, “Call for act.agst. Const. order” was identified as a narrative encouraging violence and direct action to challenge what is described as an illegitimate or unconstitutional regime. Posts include calls for national mobilization, implying that restoring the constitutional order requires violent resistance against current authorities and corrupted electoral processes.
FACT-CHECKING CORNER
In the three presidential debates (Digi24, TVR, Antena 3), candidates tackled topics from pensions and inflation to EU funds, justice, and energy policy. Factual.ro’s live fact-checking showed each contender making both accurate and misleading claims. There were a total of 26 statements fact-cheked by Factual. Crin Antonescu had around five statements checked (on his legal record, public asset deals, and fiscal policy), with most rated False or Truncated. Nicușor Dan had roughly three of his statements verified (covering EU fund absorption, city finances and agriculture), which were largely deemed partially True or Truncated. Elena Lasconi had about three claims scrutinized (on rule-of-law protests, child poverty, and national defense), ranging from a False accusation about 2012 protests to True assertions on hungry children and the 6-month defense strategy deadline. Victor Ponta had at least two debate claims fact-checked, mainly about his economic record and foreign policy; one self-promotional tax claim earned a Truncated verdict and another statement (on the US strategic partnership) was found False. Daniel Funeriu’s contributions spanned historical and policy points – for example, his statement that Romania has respected minorities “since 1918” was debunked as False, whereas a cited figure on uncollected VAT (~€9 billion) proved True. Other participants (e.g. Lavinia Șandru on population decline, Sebastian Popescu on military history, John-Ion Banu-Muscel on Russia’s threat) each had a notable claim flagged as False by fact-checkers.
Based on this week’ fact-checked social media disinformation from Factual.ro, all were rated as false. The main topics included geopolitical disinformation, public health and vaccine-related conspiracy theories, and fake narratives involving major religious and political figures. Several claims falsely announced the death of Pope Francis, attributing it to the COVID-19 vaccine or alleging he had been dead for a long time. Others included fabricated quotes from international leaders like Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—Putin allegedly stating that Russia is not Europe’s enemy, and Erdoğan supposedly threatening to pull Turkey out of NATO. Another false narrative claimed that civilians killed in the Ukrainian city of Sumy were used as human shields by Kyiv. Domestically, a viral falsehood alleged that Romania’s electricity supplier, Electrica (BEC), had suspended operations for the presidential elections. None of these false claims were attributed to active Romanian politicians, but they reflect an ecosystem of online misinformation that targets public trust in global institutions, vaccines, and international alliances.
This newsletter is part of our ongoing work with the Bulgarian-Romanian Observatory of Digital Media, member of EDMO.
Author: Funky Citizens