We have reported on the main disinformation trends in the weeks up to the elections, with special attention on what happened right before October 20. If you are interested in a summary of our colleagues’ experience as electoral observers, you can read it here (Romanian only). With the second round of the presidential elections scheduled for November 3, we will continue to update you on the main findings regarding the informational landscape of Moldova.

At first, a recap of the October 20 elections: the referendum’s outcome was the big surprise of the day. Initially thought to be a question of reaching the one-third threshold, the first results were nothing short of a shock, with a substantial advantage for the NO option. According to the Central Electoral Commission (CEC), after processing all 2,219 reports, which account for 1,488,874 valid votes, 751,235 voters (50.46%) chose “YES” while 737,639 voters (49.54%) chose “NO”. The gap in favour of “YES” widened towards the end of the vote count, especially after processing the reports from diaspora polling stations. 13,596 votes or 0,92% made the difference. This very close result will definitely impact the discourses of the presidential candidates and will be a clashing point for Moldovan politicians in the future. As for the presidential elections, according to preliminary results, Maia Sandu ranked first with 42.49%, while Alexandr Stoianoglo ranked second with 25.95%.

Disinformation on the day of the election: the pundits that have shared disinformation throughout the campaign worked double shift on election Sunday. Some of the stories they have circulated are directly linked with the electoral process:

• Voters are forced to vote in the referendum by commission members who hand them the referendum ballot without asking;
• People being called to the ballots via SMS and allowed to vote with expired passports in Romania;
• Russian-speaking observers being denied access to polling stations in EU countries;
• Foreigners with recently-acquired Moldovan citizenship were allowed to vote, thanks to their anti-Russian sentiment, but Moldovan citizens in Russia were denied their electoral rights;
• Voting stations in EU countries change the outcome of the vote to suit the Western agenda;
• The vote outcome from embassies in the West was manipulated to “save face”;
• Ballot-stuffing was a widespread practice in polling stations in the EU.

What to expect for the second round of the presidential elections: PAS presidential candidate Maia Sandu, reacting for the first time after the polls closed, claimed that the elections were fraudulent, citing unprecedented attacks on democracy by criminal groups and foreign forces, and vowed to continue defending freedom and democracy while awaiting the final results. Maia Sandu thanked her supporters for their victory in the first battle of a tough fight, emphasizing the fairness of their win despite alleged election fraud. She called for unity and urged citizens to defend democracy through voting, inviting her opponent Alexandr Stoianoglo to a debate on Moldova’s future. Similarily, Alexandr Stoianoglo thanked voters for their participation, emphasizing the importance of every vote in the democratic process. He expressed gratitude for the support and highlighted that regardless of the election outcome, each citizen’s voice was heard. He did not mention anything about fraud allegations.

Initially, the candidates have agreed to a debate on Sunday, October 27, at the Palace of the Republic. However, press associations are opposing the choice of the controversial journalist Gheorghe Gonța as the moderator, a proposal from Stoianoglo’s team, due to his lack of integrity and past acceptance of bribes. The Press Council of Moldova has urged the candidates to choose a neutral platform and a credible moderator. Stoianoglo responded by suggesting Sandu choose a journalist she finds acceptable, but Sandu insists on a direct debate between the candidates to focus on their plans for Moldova’s future. The debate is said to take place on Sunday at the Palace of the Republic, where each candidate will ask the other ten questions directly.

Opinion polls and political analysts: Analysts believe that the second round of the presidential elections will be highly competitive, with both Maia Sandu and Alexandr Stoianoglo having nearly equal chances of winning. A poll conducted before the first round of the presidential elections suggests that Maia Sandu would win the second round against Alexandr Stoianoglo: 40.6% of respondents said they would vote for Maia Sandu, while 36.4% would choose Alexandr Stoianoglo; 8.6% would not participate in the election, 11.8% are undecided, and 2.6% refused to answer.

WatchDog.md has conducted an opinion poll on how do Russian speakers position themselves regarding Moldova’s integration into the EU. The survey reveals that Russian-speaking residents of Moldova are divided on the country’s integration into the European Union. While a significant portion supports EU accession (34% firmly agree), there remains a notable segment that is either opposed or undecided. Despite these challenges, there is a growing awareness among the population about the benefits of EU integration, driven by the need for external support to achieve prosperity. In Moldova, according to the 2014 census, about 21% of the population are Russian speakers; two-thirds (approximately 67%) of Russian speakers are aged between 45 and 60+. Most have technical or higher education and primarily reside in Chișinău, Bălți, and the Gagauzia region.

A new investigation by Ziarul de Gardă centres around Alexandr Stoianoglo. Sandu’s contender in the second round of the presidential elections is supported by the pro-Russian Socialist Party and has sparked controversy by boycotting the referendum on Moldova’s EU integration, citing opposition to the current government rather than the EU itself. Despite his stance, his family has strong ties to Europe, with his daughters studying and working in European institutions. His youngest daughter, Corina, studied in the Netherlands and now works for the European Central Bank, while his eldest daughter, Cristina, works as a tax consultant in Switzerland. Stoianoglo himself holds dual citizenship with Romania, which he claims is for professional and familial benefits. His candidacy is further complicated by his involvement in multiple criminal cases, including allegations of corruption and abuse of office.

Activist Marin Andonii, a supporter of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), has been reported for hate speech against presidential candidates in Moldova. In two video clips, Andonii mocks Natalia Morari, questioning her mental health and making inappropriate comments about her. In a third clip, he falsifies statements by Igor Dodon, claiming Dodon supports European integration. PAS condemned any xenophobic attacks and incitement to inter-ethnic hatred against the candidates, while pro-Russian pundits like Bogdan Ţîrdea use these claims to picture Sandu and PAS as Fascists.

Regarding the narratives targeting the presidential and referendum electoral processes, there was a considerable difference in both the dissemination and audience reception of the narratives expressed in the Russian, versus Romanian language. The graphs below tracked narratives discrediting these electoral processes and their audience reception, between the 13^th and the 24^th of October 2024.

Further segmenting the narratives expressed in Romanian, the thematic narratives reported over previous timeframes are also prevalent now, with a notable surge in the narratives referencing election fraud.

This newsletter is part of our ongoing work with the Bulgarian-Romanian Observatory of Digital Media, member of EDMO.