Over the last ten months (September 2024-June2025), Belarusian propaganda has intensified its attacks on EU countries. The main narratives focus on their social and economic policies. A year earlier, condemnation of sanctions imposed on Belarus and Russia was more prevalent, as was the narrative that the European population supported Russian military aggression against Ukraine.
An analysis of the Belarusian Investigative Center
This analysis is based on the disinformation database of the Belarusian Investigative Centre. Currently, this database contains over 1.000 fake news items recorded in the Belarusian information space over the past four years.
For our study, we selected fake news articles from the last ten months — from the beginning of September 2024 to the end of June 2025. Of these, only those pertaining to the EU or to one of the European countries were chosen. This resulted in a sample of around 80 fake reports, accounting for 40% of all fake news items during this period.
We structured them according to topics and narratives. Of these, 50% pertained to Poland, a third concerned the Baltic states, and the remaining addressed the EU economy. We have identified the three most popular Belarusian propaganda narratives linked to the European Union over the last 10 months.
Economic devastation in the Baltic states
The propaganda regularly produces fake information about EU Member States, but these fake stories gain momentum during political tensions in these countries. For example, the number of fake news stories about Germany doubled in November 2024 and February 2025, which were periods of government crisis and early parliamentary election. In May 2025, the focus of propaganda shifted to Poland, where the presidential election was being held at the time. That month accounted for a quarter of all fake reports over the past ten months. For example, one piece claimed that Poland’s economy had deteriorated over the last five years and reported that the average wage in Poland is 3.000 zloty (approximately 700 euros), despite the fact that even the official minimum wage is higher in Poland.
A third of all reports of disinformation about European Union countries are linked to the narrative that the EU is facing an economic crisis due to the reckless policies of its leaders. The Baltic states became one of the primary targets of Belarusian propaganda. 13 of the 24 fake news stories related to the economy focused on the Baltic states, primarily Lithuania. The most common narratives centered on high inflation and rising prices in the Baltic States, as well as the decline of all the successful enterprises from the Soviet occupation era. We have proven that the list of supposedly closed factories includes ones that are still operational. Moreover, inflation in the Baltic states was lower than in Belarus itself in 2024.
The most significant information blow was launched in winter, on 8 February 2025, when these countries left the BRELL energy ring and connected to continental Europe’s synchronous network. It has been claimed that this has led to a 300% increase in electricity prices, which are not expected to decline anytime soon. Such a price spike did indeed occur on the energy exchange, but only for a couple of times during peak demand hours so most private consumers did not notice it. Six months on, there has been no change to the residential electricity tariff plans.
The most laughable fake news story was a report on state television claiming that the sanctions policy had led to an economic crisis in the Baltic states, affecting more and more segments of the population. To confirm this, they showed a video of a young woman complaining about hard work and a lack of money. State media claimed that the woman lives in Latvia.
However, BIC was able to ascertain that the woman was born and currently lives in Crimea, which Russia temporarily occupies.
Weak social policy in EU countries
Following the European Union’s decision to provide aid to Ukraine, Belarusian propaganda began claiming that this was to the detriment of its population. Since then, the narrative has intensified and is now being used to discredit the leadership of EU countries, now without any mention of military aid. For example, during the flooding in southwestern Poland in late September 2024, Belarusian state television reported that the Polish government was not assisting citizens in rebuilding their damaged housing. This was contrary to both the law and statements made by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk regarding the provision of free financial aid to all affected.
Propaganda also distorts birthrate statistics and existing fertility support measures in EU countries. The fact that the birth rate is now at a record low in many countries is being used to manipulate the claim that governments are not concerned about the interests of mothers. For example, one state-run channel reported that abortion ban is the only way to support childbirth in Poland and that in Latvia, the child allowance is allegedly just €13 per month.
Europeans feel hopeless
Two topics tie for third place: sanctions and the sense of despair about life in the EU. Our database of disinformation contains six fake stories on each topic.
When it comes to sanctions, two main narratives are circulating: the sanctions against Belarus are illegal, and they had a greater impact on Europe than on Belarus. The reasons for imposing sanctions are distorted. According to Belarusian state media, Lithuania used to be a poor country, and without Belarusian goods transit, it became even more miserable.
The second theme’s narrative goes something like this: “Europeans are unhappy and feel hopeless”. This narrative appears as a backdrop to fake news stories about high unemployment or suicide rates. For example, in September 2024, the ZhS Premium Telegram channel published a post stating that democracies have the highest suicide rates. Lithuania is second because its government does not address the issues facing its citizens.
Poland’s population is shrinking allegedly due to Poles immigrating to Western European countries and the UK. This is despite the fact that the volume of this outflow has decreased in recent years.
It is also claimed that people are even fleeing Germany in search of a better life. “According to official government statistics, up to 300.000 highly qualified professionals leave Germany each year. The main destinations are Australia, Japan and, again, the United States”, reported the Belarusian TV channel Belarus-1.
According to statistics, around 300.000 German citizens do leave Germany every year, a trend that began after 2016. However, many of them are also returning to Germany, which keeps the balance at 80.000. The most popular destinations are neighbouring countries such as Switzerland and Austria, as well as the United States.
Narratives in previous years
We have already carried out similar analyses based on the database of false news several times: once for the period from August 2022 to August 2023 and again for the period from August 2023 to August 2024. It allowed us to understand how the narratives are changing.
Two years ago, every third fake claim was devoted to European countries; now it’s 42%. The number of mentions of Poland has increased (from 38% to 50%), as has the mention of the standard of living in Europe — from 18% to 30%. Meanwhile, the topic of war and defence remains at 10%.
A year ago, the dominant narrative centred on the difficulties faced by Belarusians living in Poland. Belarus borders Poland, and despite the visa regime, many Belarusians choose to go there to shop, study or work. Of all the fabricated stories about Poland, eight related to this topic were added to the database of the Belarusian Investigative Centre at that time. Over the last 10 months, there have been five of them. In other words, although the narrative has faded into the background, it has been preserved.
There were 30% fewer fake news stories about the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States on Belarus and Russia over the past year. The main narrative on this topic remains unchanged: sanctions do not work or have any negative consequences. On the contrary, they stimulate the economic development of the two states. They caused harm to the countries that introduced them — namely, the European Union countries and the United States.
A year ago, one of the top three popular narratives was that Poland has always been an enemy of Belarus while Russia has been a friend. It is based on the shared history of the Polish and Belarusian peoples, when the western part of modern-day Belarus was part of the Polish Republic until 1939. A year ago, we identified seven instances of misinformation on this topic.
Currently, that narrative has lost its relevance. We have not recorded any historical fakes relating to Poland. There were only two items intended to stir up hatred between Poles and Belarusians based on nationality.
Two years ago, the top three narratives sounded as follows: “Europe is in crisis”, “Europe is morally degraded”, and “Europeans are against supporting Ukraine in the war”.
The first narrative has become even more prominent over the past two years. The Belarusian Investigative Centre’s database contained 21 fakes of a similar nature, but now, just under a year later, there are 24.
Fake reports related to the moral degradation and abandonment of traditional European values halved in two years.
Over the past year, there were no fake stories at all in the BIC database related to the narrative that Europeans are against supporting Ukraine in the war.
Picture Credits: Flickr/hugovk