We have entered the week of the elections – this Sunday, the first round of presidential elections and the referendum will take place. In Moldova, a number of  1957 polling stations will open their doors at 7:00, the most in Chisinau, 306, and 30 polling stations in the Transnistrian region; abroad, 231 polling stations will be open in 37 countries – out of which only two in Russia, a controversial choice that was perceived by some to be part of a ploy to censor the will of the people, as we have reported previously.

The most influential journalistic work linked to this campaign was published last week by Ziarul de Gardă, a publication specialized in investigations: In the service of Moscow. Three months among Şor’s “slaves” follows how the money circulates and how the people who work for Ilan Şor are recruited and enticed, in the service of Moscow. Şor is a controversial figure in Moldovan politics, known for his involvement in the “billion-dollar bank heist” in Moldova, when he orchestrated a scheme that led to the disappearance of $1 billion from three Moldovan banks, an amount equivalent to about 12% of the country’s GDP at the time, and his influence over political movements that challenge Moldova’s European integration efforts.

The stake – the hijacking of the country’s European course by compromising the October 20 referendum. For three months, Măriuța Nistor, an undercover reporter for Ziarul de Gardă, infiltrated protests and electoral meetings organized by Șor’s supporters, using a false identity.  She was instructed on what to say and post, how to prove she was at demonstrations distributed misleading leaflets about the European and Eurasian Unions, all within a well-established network of activists who care more about the money than the politics behind it. A fake identity card was created for her, and a bank account was opened in Russia with non-existent personal data. She received 15,000 Rubles (about 140 EUR) for her work, with another 15,000 Rubles were transferred in October. Throughout this period, she received periodic calls from Moscow thanking her for her activity. A bank account was created for the reporter under the false identity at the Russian state-owned Promsvyazbank, which is inaccessible from Moldova due to blocks requested by the Moldovan Information and Security Service (SIS). Network coordinators instructed “Ana Nastas” to use a Romanian VPN to bypass this restriction.

To increase her allowance, the reporter registered as an activist on a Telegram chatbot. The next day, she received a link for “Ana Nastas” to recruit sympathizers, similar to an economic pyramid scheme. Each recruited sympathizer meant extra money and potential votes for Șor’s parties, with each activist required to recruit at least 10 people. Activists also discussed a surprise candidate to be announced on October 18, focusing efforts on discrediting the referendum, indirectly affecting Maia Sandu. The surprise candidate, independent Victoria Furtună, was introduced at a meeting.  This continued to operate smoothly even on the day when the police and prosecutors announced they had uncovered the scheme through which approximately 130,000 Moldovan citizens were bribed for their votes on October 20, and even after the announcement by law enforcement agencies.

Ziarul de Gardă promises more information on Ilan Şor’s Moscow network. You can read the full investigation or watch the video version of it. 

As previously mentioned, the main tactic of the Russian-backed opposition is to discredit the referendum, which would in turn have a boomerang effect on Maia Sandu. An opinion poll by Watchdog shows that two-thirds of people declared they will be voting this Sunday, with about half voting YES on the referendum, but one-third voting NO. The referendum to amend the Constitution is considered valid if at least one-third of the registered voters participate. According to the State Voter Registry, there are just over 3.3 million registered voters in Moldova, meaning at least 1.1 million voters need to turn out for the referendum to be validated. Furthermore, the decision is adopted through the referendum if the majority of participating citizens vote in favour. In this case, over 550,000 voters need to vote YES for the constitutional amendment to pass. If the majority of voters on October 20 vote against the amendment, the Constitution will not be changed. While this does not mean that the country’s process of joining the European Union will stop, a negative result will strengthen the anti-Western stance.

Given the facts presented above, it is no wonder the last weekend before the elections was ripe with anti-EU disinformation:

• The EU funds, used as bribery for the Moldovan audience, bring no change to the everyday person – or, as one Telegram post puts it: “In about three years – even a little less – Moldova has already been helped, as former Prime Minister Vlad Filat calculated, by 1.18 billion euros. They helped in such a way that no one saw or felt this money. But they trumpeted about it from every iron, demanding that ungrateful Moldovans bow to the European gentlemen at the waist, kiss the European hand and kneel in gratitude”
• Moldova might face a grave mistake: an OP-ED by a Moldovan living abroad for almost two decades decried how the discussion about the referendum has degraded the fundaments of democracy. As the author claims: “There is a feeling that Moldova is on the verge of a huge mistake. And all because, in my opinion, the upcoming referendum directly threatens the development of democracy, without which the country certainly has no prospect of joining the EU, but risks turning, for a long time, into an isolated state and an area of instability.”. He ends his plea sharing his option for the voting: not a boycott, but a strong NO, since “the current authorities cannot be trusted with altering the Constitution.”
• Europe’s decline is no example to follow: a rather philosophical op-ed that reiterated an established narrative of a dying Europe, plagued by its politics and capitalist economy, that is doomed to fall like any other empire in history, thus making it a flawed partner for Moldova’s hopes of a better future. Moreover, it is strengthened another darling narrative of Russian propaganda that has been circulated in Moldova for years: rather than an East vs. West division, the only true salvation comes from peace and neutrality.
• The truth behind the referendum, by Igor Dodon: former president Dodon continues his attacks on the referendum by claiming it is a ruse to make the national legislation of Moldova less important than that of the EU: “This referendum is not about joining the EU, but about changing the constitution. The ballot does not say: are you “for” or “against” joining the EU? In simple terms, it says whether you agree that EU laws will become more important for us than Moldovan laws”, Dodon claims.
• Anti-corruption as blackmail and political pressure: this is what Orhei mayor Tatiana Conciu claims has happened under the guise of searches conducted by the National Anti-Corruption Center (NAC) in her office. Four Orhei city hall officials, including the mayor herself, were detained for 72 hours following searches carried out as part of a criminal investigation, but Conciu claims the real reason behind these intimidation tactics is that Orhei is an anti-Sandu stronghold that the president wants to punish, knowing she will not win any votes there.

Stopfals.md has written an article on yet another anti-referendum campaign, straight to the people’s mailboxes. The flyers distributed by the Communist Party falsely claim that the October 20 referendum on European integration will lead to the loss of Moldova’s neutrality and sovereignty or joining NATO, narratives we have reported on in previous briefs. They also suggest that the government will dissolve independent Moldova and merge with Romanian counties if it gains the ability to amend the Constitution. However, the proposed constitutional amendments do not affect Moldova’s neutrality or sovereignty. The Constitutional Court confirmed that these amendments do not alter Moldova’s sovereign and neutral status, and joining the EU does not mean merging with another state. The flyers also falsely claim that the government aims to join NATO, which is not an objective of the referendum. Moldova’s National Action Plan for EU accession and the European Commission’s communication on Moldova’s EU membership conditions do not include NATO membership. Moldova is a neutral state and cannot join military alliances. Pro-Russian parties, including the Socialist Party, have spread similar disinformation, with campaigns like “Stop EU Moldova” promoting anti-EU narratives. These campaigns are affiliated with Ilan Șor, who is backing multiple approaches to undermine the referendum.

This newsletter is part of our ongoing work with the Bulgarian-Romanian Observatory of Digital Media, member of EDMO.