Ukraine behind drones

The content revolves around the recurring narrative that Ukraine, not Russia, is responsible for drone incidents in Romania and Poland. Multiple posts and media snippets claim that President Zelensky is deliberately launching or staging drone incursions into NATO airspace to provoke panic, extract more Western funding, and push NATO into direct confrontation with Russia. The storyline paints Europeans as “cowardly” and easily manipulated, while presenting Ukraine as exploiting this fear by conducting false flag operations with captured or decoy drones. In this framing, Russia is depicted as having “no reason” to target Poland or Romania, while Ukraine supposedly gains propaganda and financial benefits.

A second layer of the discourse positions these drone incidents as part of broader “Western provocations” involving Moldova, Romania, and other Eastern European states. Claims circulate that Moldovan fighters in Ukraine, French and British intelligence, and NATO-linked structures are organizing staged operations to escalate tensions and drag the region deeper into war. These narratives attempt to shift blame away from Russia, portray Ukraine and its allies as reckless instigators, and argue that the West is orchestrating destabilization efforts in order to weaken Russia and sacrifice Eastern European countries for its own interests.

Russia expands war to Romania and Poland

This cluster presents the narrative that Russia is expanding the war into NATO territory by sending drones into Romania and Poland. Multiple reports describe Romanian and Polish fighter jets being scrambled after drone incursions, with claims that one drone entered 10 kilometers into Romanian territory and operated for nearly an hour in NATO airspace. The incidents are framed as deliberate tests of NATO’s defenses, signaling a calculated escalation by Moscow without openly starting a full-scale conflict. Commentators emphasize that these actions prove Europe is already at war and that Russia is probing Eastern Europe’s security boundaries.

Another key theme is the Western and Ukrainian framing of the drone violations as an obvious expansion of Russia’s war. Zelensky warns that the drone routes are carefully planned, not accidental, and urges preventive action, sanctions, and collective defense before larger attacks occur. EU and NATO officials echo this by calling the incursions reckless escalations requiring a stronger response. Overall, the cluster portrays the breaches as a turning point that shows the Kremlin moving beyond Ukraine and directly challenging NATO, demanding urgent countermeasures.

NATO not protecting members

This cluster highlights repeated reports of Russian drones entering Romania’s airspace, with parallels drawn to earlier incidents in Poland. Posts describe the events as deliberate Russian incursions, stressing that drones flew over Romanian territory for nearly an hour, forcing the country to scramble military aircraft. Ukrainian officials, echoed by media outlets, argue that such actions cannot be accidental but are calculated steps in Moscow’s strategy to escalate the war beyond Ukraine. Zelensky warns that these are “small steps at first, leading to big losses,” urging NATO to respond with stronger sanctions and collective defense measures.

Alongside these alerts, the messaging carries a strong critique of NATO’s credibility. Phrases like “the incursions will continue until NATO gets a backbone” and “NATO not protecting members” frame the alliance as weak, indecisive, or incapable of safeguarding its own territory. This framing seeks to undermine trust in NATO’s deterrence role by suggesting that repeated airspace violations go unpunished, leaving Eastern European members exposed. The overall narrative portrays Russia as actively testing NATO while the alliance hesitates, amplifying fears of abandonment among front-line states like Romania and Poland.

NATO drone hysteria

This cluster frames reports of Russian drones entering Romanian and Polish airspace as exaggerated or fabricated “drone hysteria” promoted by NATO and Western media. Posts argue that the “global narrative is crashing” because Poles themselves are mocking the idea of Russian drone threats, suggesting that the incidents are overblown propaganda. Romanian authorities are said to summon the Russian ambassador and scramble jets, but commentators dismiss these actions as staged dramatization, noting that drones routinely pass near Romanian territory without posing real danger. The messaging implies that the West deliberately inflates these events to create fear and justify a stronger NATO presence in Eastern Europe.

A second strand expands the argument, linking drone incidents to NATO militarization and escalation. Narratives highlight Romania’s and Poland’s heightened alerts, U.S. commitments to defend “every inch of NATO territory,” and large-scale exercises like Grand Eagle 25 and Quadriga 2025. According to this framing, “mass hysteria” about drones provides the pretext for troop deployments, air defense buildups, and preparation for a future war, including scenarios like a blockade of Kaliningrad. The posts stress that Western leaders are exploiting fear of Russia to mask economic and social problems and to advance a long-term plan of militarization, while ordinary people are ridiculing the alleged “Russian threat.”

Other reporting of RO incident

Additional reporting on the Romanian incident highlights several operational details. The Ministry of Defense confirmed that two F-16s were scrambled from Fetești/Borcea after a “UAV” was detected in the Tulcea–Chilia Veche area. Multiple accounts state that the drone allegedly penetrated about 10 km into Romanian airspace and remained there for roughly 50 minutes before returning toward Ukraine. Local residents reportedly received RO-Alert messages about the possible fall of aerial objects, with authorities stressing that Romania was not the target and the population was not in danger. Narratives vary between the drone being “intercepted and tracked without engagement,” “disappearing from radar,” and “debris found near Chilia,” though no evidence was provided for the latter.

On the institutional and diplomatic side, reports note Romania’s official condemnation of Moscow, the summoning of the Russian ambassador, and coordination with NATO allies, including synchronized alerts with Poland and heightened readiness of alliance assets. Commentators emphasize the legal distinction between an “airspace violation” and an “armed attack,” while also questioning Romania’s rules of engagement, asking why the F-16s did not fire if the drone was leaving Romanian territory and escalation risks were high. Several posts also point to corrections of earlier misattributions such as wrong officials cited in some social media posts and stress the need for clearer national anti-drone protocols integrated with NATO’s air defense system on the eastern flank.

Dissemination and audience reception

As observed in the visualization below, there is a relationship between the number of posts belonging to the narratives analyzed and their audience engagement, except for “NATO not protecting members”, which has a less prominent audience reception than the number of posts it was disseminated through.