IN THIS EDITION
ON THE RISE
Weekly Watch of Emerging Disinformation Risks
Trump’s Assassination Attempts and Related Disinformation are Two Sides of the Same Coin
A new attack against Trump took place on April 25, the third in the past two years, and a new wave of conspiracy theories immediately followed. This time there was no information vacuum to justify the circulation of these theories: the shooting happened during the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, so there was no shortage of real journalists on site, and the identity and motivations of the shooter were quickly disclosed. Still, numerous claims about the shooting being staged, about the whole thing being a false-flag operation, and so on, immediately went viral across different social media platforms. Why?
Social media platforms seem to play a big role here. First, because they accustomed their users to consume “information” (or, to be precise, content that looks like information, even if it’s not) with unprecedented speed: waiting even half an hour for reliable journalistic reporting about what happened feels like too much. Users view, like, and share content answering their questions within minutes, if not seconds, after the fact becomes known. It doesn’t matter if this content comes from unreliable sources. Second, because of the money that social media platforms give to users whose posts go viral: this incentivizes the already mentioned speed at the expense of accuracy (if not veracity, especially now with AI-generated tools in play), and strong emotional content at the expense of balanced and factual reporting. Influencers that are good at making money with engaging content are not necessarily good journalists. Third, and this is the most problematic aspect, because the consumption of “information” on social media platforms fosters polarization and distrust in institutions, and conspiracy theories thrive when people do not believe what authorities and traditional media tell them.
It is a scary inclined plane: as our societies consume more and more “information” on social media platforms, and less from accountable and reliable media, polarization increases and divisive political leaders thrive. These leaders do not have the support or trust of the other half of society, which then becomes more exposed to believing conspiracy theories – whether the attacks against Trump are staged to increase his popularity, or that the 2020 elections were stolen by Democrats – and to engaging in real-world violence, whether by shooting at a president or rioting at the United States Capitol. And, as time goes by, the cracks in societies only grow bigger.
Even before the arrival of social media platforms, information was increasingly treated as a commodity to be sold to consumers, rather than as a service to be provided to citizens. But now the scale of the problem is such that a fundamental question urgently needs an answer: can democracy survive if citizens are fed with content they like, rather than with the information they need?
ZOOM-IN
A Closer Look at Cases Detected By the EDMO Network
“Staged” or “false flag” have become common conspiracy theory tropes, from the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012 to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, of July 2024. What is remarkable about the shooting at last Saturday night’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner is the speed at which the same theory picked up on X, Reddit and Instagram, right after the incident. According to a CNN report, one of the first posts started circulating on X less than 45 minutes after the shots were fired and was viewed more than 6 million times. But speed is just one concern. Another is the contemporary use of AI-manipulated imagery to fabricate evidence supporting such conspiracies and generate online engagement. Yet, mass shootings are real-world incidents that trigger other harmful trends, from identity-based scapegoating and discrimination of vulnerable groups to the global spread of “crime” digital sub-cultures.
AI-altered Image Shows Mentalist Holding “Don’t Panic” Sign at WHCD
An image gone viral on X portrayed the mentalist Oz Pearlman at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner of April 25, prompting Melania Trump (sitting next to the president) to “keep calm”, a few moments before the shooting. The image was circulated in posts suggesting that Pearlman anticipated the shooting, implying that the incident had been planned and was a “false flag”. IBERIFER’s article explains that the image was AI-manipulated using Google Gemini to evoke a connection between the performer’s act and the violent incident. In reality, there is no evidence that the mentalist foresaw or influenced the shooting; instead, the confusion stemmed from edited visuals and misleading posts shared on social media. The fact-check emphasizes how such content exploits fear and uncertainty following violent events to generate engagement. It also highlights the importance of verifying sources before sharing sensational claims.
Mass Shootings Keep Feeding Transphobic Narratives
Since 2022, there have been a dozen incidents in the US when a transgender person was wrongly blamed for mass shootings and even terrorism. Research suggests that portraying transgender people as a force behind violent acts is to justify discrimination against them, which can result in real-life harms. A recent analysis by ADMO debunks false statistics in a chart widely shared on X (and reshared by Elon Musk himself) in recent weeks. The claim is that transgender individuals commit a disproportionate number of mass shootings.
Researchers and crime data show that mass shooters in the United States are overwhelmingly cisgender men, not transgender individuals. According to data from the Gun Violence Archive, only five known cases of transgender perpetrators were identified among thousands of mass shootings, i.e. about 0.1%. Statisticians also criticize the chart’s methodology, noting it uses small sample sizes, unreliable definitions, and misleading per-capita calculations comparing incompatible categories like race and gender identity.
Global Digital Network “True Crime” Suspected of Shooting at a School in Santa Fe
The article reports on the investigation into a school shooting in San Cristóbal, Santa Fe, where a 13-year-old student was killed on March 30. Authorities are examining possible links between the teenage attacker and an international online subculture known as the “True Crime” community, which circulates and sometimes glorifies violent acts. Investigators are analyzing the suspect’s digital activity, including social media, messaging platforms, and online games, to determine whether he acted alone or was influenced by others. The investigation seeks to reconstruct both the crime and the broader digital environment surrounding the attacker.
ELECTION BEAT
Tracking electoral disinformation through EDMO Hubs
Coordinated Action Against Fact-Checkers Ahead of Armenian Elections
On 7 June, Armenia is heading to the polls for its parliamentary elections, and disinformation campaigns have already begun. As explained in this article by GADMO, fact-checkers across Europe have, since December 2025, been receiving a significant number of emails requesting verification of content. These emails, however, are not genuine but are designed to influence topics and tie up resources. This is not a new phenomenon; it was already observed in Moldova and in relation to the Ukraine war. Fact-checkers at the Armenian media platform CivilNet shared this assessment with APA-Faktencheck and referred to the so-called “Matryoshka” network, very active also during the recent Hungarian elections.
Famous rock stars have also been the subject of disinformation ahead of this upcoming election. Several AI-generated videos of musicians from some of the most famous rock bands, such as “Ramones” and “Bring Me the Horizon”, appear to show them announcing their withdrawal from a local rock festival or insulting Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia. None of these videos are genuine.
Post Bulgarian Elections: Structural Concerns and Cognitive Warfare
International observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe(CoE) assessed the Bulgarian elections as competitive and generally well administered, but conducted in a context of deep political polarisation and negative campaigning.
They also identified structural concerns: campaign finance rules lack pre-election reporting and fail to cover third-party or online advertising, while the media environment, though pluralistic, remains affected by political influence and self-censorship.
These findings align with broader analyses identifying Bulgaria as structurally vulnerable due to weakened media systems, institutional safeguards, and civic capacity. Such conditions enable cognitive warfare to erode trust, disrupt shared knowledge systems, and fragment public discourse.
Addressing this requires systemic action: strengthening public-interest media, reinforcing institutional safeguards, and rebuilding civic education to restore democratic resilience.
Péter Magyar Promises Independent Public Service Media, But What Can Really Be Done?
After 16 years of Fidesz government, Hungary no longer has independent public service media. Since 2010, Viktor Orbán has restructured the system to concentrate power in institutions heavily controlled by the government. The result has been biased, propagandistic content that violates both Hungarian law and EU principles of media pluralism and freedom.
The new Tisza government, led by Péter Magyar, has pledged to rebuild public service media. Its plans include temporarily suspending public media news services until impartiality is restored, passing a new media law, reforming or replacing key institutions (such as the Media Council, NMHH, and MTVA), and strengthening oversight to ensure independent, professional management.
These reforms face significant challenges: removing regulators appointed by the previous government and implementing structural changes within the current legal framework is difficult. However, Tisza’s two-thirds parliamentary majority would allow it to rewrite laws or fully restructure institutions, should it choose to do so.
Different Elections, Same Technique: From the Netherlands to Hungary, a Network of Fake X Accounts
A report by Alliance4Europe and Trollrensics identifies a coordinated network of fake accounts on X, showing that the same infrastructure used to spread disinformation during the 2025 Dutch elections was reused for the 2026 Hungarian elections.
In the Hungarian case, the network amplified pro-Viktor Orbán content, as well as pro-Russian and anti-establishment narratives. Previously, it supported Dutch far-right actors such as Thierry Baudet and Geert Wilders, using over 550 fake accounts responsible for more than 23,000 posts.
The technique was not limited to the content itself, but focused on manipulating platform dynamics: mass-following selected accounts, artificially inflating follower counts, and boosting engagement to mimic organic popularity and influence algorithms.
This network aims to distort public perception by making certain ideas appear widely supported, thereby misleading not only voters but also journalists and policymakers. Its repeated use across elections highlights a persistent, low-cost, and reusable influence infrastructure.
GLOBAL PULSE
Disinformation narratives shaping the world’s conversations
Economic Doomsday Narratives Build on Middle East War: How a False “Energy Lockdown” Quote Blamed on Von Der Leyen Fits a Broader Disinformation Playbook
The importance of the interlink between global economic pressures and the information space has once again been underlined by the spread of a false claim alleging that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged citizens to “stay at home” in response to the energy crisis. As the article shows, a short, de‑contextualised video clip was circulated online to suggest authoritarian intent, despite the fact that such a statement was never made. Careful verification against the full press conference reveals how actual remarks on energy efficiency were selectively edited to provoke outrage at a moment of heightened public concern over rising costs.
Beyond the specific falsehood, the episode exemplifies a broader disinformation pattern in which economic anxieties are instrumentalised to undermine trust in both European and national public institutions. By blending genuine social grievances with manipulated or misleading content, such narratives seek to cast EU leaders as detached from everyday realities. This approach – recycling partial truths, stripping them of context, and re‑embedding them in emotive framing – has repeatedly surfaced in campaigns previously detected by the EDMO netowork, illustrating how economic stress can amplify the impact of coordinated information manipulation.
From Ancient Trees to Modern Doubt: How Glacier Finds Are Recast to Undermine Climate Science
Claims circulating about trees uncovered by retreating glaciers offer a telling example of how scientific observations can be reframed to challenge established climate knowledge. As the article details, misleading online content has seized on the age of these tree remains to argue that significant warming occurred long before the industrial era, presenting this as evidence that today’s temperature rise is neither unusual nor human‑made. Such arguments, however, rely on a compressed and misleading reading of climate history, disregarding how glaciers naturally ebb and flow over millennia and how local past conditions differ fundamentally from current global trends.
In a wider sense, this case reflects a recurring dynamic in climate‑related information manipulation: isolated findings are elevated into sweeping counter‑claims against the scientific consensus. By detaching fragments of legitimate research from their explanatory framework, these narratives blur the line between natural long‑term variability and the rapid, human‑driven warming observed today. The effect is less about advancing alternative science than about cultivating doubt – demonstrating how selective interpretations of evidence are repeatedly mobilised to weaken trust in climate science and delay collective responses to a systemic challenge.
ON A DIFFERENT NOTE
The findings of this report should put EU officials on high alert: media freedom and pluralism are under attack, and most of the Commission’s recommendations to Member States have been repeated over the years with little impact.
Jon Henley, The Guardian: Media freedom ‘under sustained attack’ across EU as public trust drops, report finds
Paolo Cesarini, Editorial Director
Tommaso Canetta, Editor-in Chief
Editorial Staff: Elena Coden, Paula Gori, Elena Maggi
This edition draws in part on automated translation and reflects information available as of 30 April 2026. Later developments may not be included.
