An analysis of the Belarusian Investigative Center
Belarusian disinformation has undergone a significant shift in focus over the past year, with a growing emphasis on condemning Poland and sanctions against Belarus. This marks a departure from its previous main rhetoric, which was focused on Europe’s rising cost of living and alleged support for Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine.
This conclusion is based on the analysis of the database of false stories “Catalogue of Fakes” by the Belarusian Investigative Center. The database currently includes over 800 false news stories from the past three years that have been spotted in Belarusian and sometimes Russian media.
For the purpose of this study, we selected false stories from this vast collection of information regarding the period between August 25, 2023, and August 25, 2024. We further refined our selection to focus on stories specific to the European Union, European region, or individual European countries. This resulted in a sample size of approximately 100 false news stories, roughly one-third of the year’s total.
We then categorized these stories according to their themes and narratives: 43% were related to Poland, 44% focused on the war between Russia and Ukraine, and 10% focused on sanctions against Belarus and Russia. From these topics, we identified the three most popular disinformation narratives spread by Belarusian propaganda over the past year.
Living in Poland is tough for Belarusians
One in five false news stories involving Poland, promotes the false narrative that life in Poland is worse than in Belarus, for Belarusians and more in general. Belarus borders Poland, and despite the visa regime, many Belarusians travel to this neighbouring state to shop, study, or work.
Over the past year, the Belarusian Investigative Center’s database has recorded eight false stories in line with this narrative. For instance, the Telegram channel “ZhS Premium” published a post saying that Belarusian doctors in Poland can only get jobs as orderlies. Another false story claimed that Polish universities graduate weak specialists.
However, the most frequently repeated claim was that Belarusians no longer have interest in visiting Poland to see neighbours’ lives. According to false news, the traditional dynamic is now reversed, with Poles increasingly drawn to visit Belarus.
Noteworthy, to stimulate tourism from neighbouring countries, the Belarusian government has abolished the visa regime with Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland from 2022. Nonetheless, in 2023, only 43,000 Poles (0.1% of the population) visited Belarus visa-free, while 1.5 million Belarusian citizens (15% of the population) travelled to Poland during the same period.
Disinformation on this topic emerges in the context of increased political and economic pressure from Poland on Belarus, as well as in connection with the migration situation on the border: Minsk has been accused by the West – even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – to weaponize migrants, attracted in Belarus with the promise of an easy entrance in the EU, to destabilize EU Member States societies.
The reaction from Polish authorities of making any crossing of the border with Belarus harder, was then presented as evidence of Warsaw preventing its citizens from visiting Belarus to see ‘a quiet life’.
Sanctions against Russia backfired on the EU
Following the European Union’s imposition of sanctions on Russia and Belarus, Belarusian media outlets have been disseminating a narrative claiming that, against expectations, these sanctions would not have a negative impact. On the contrary, they would stimulate the economic development of both states, while the countries that imposed sanctions – the European Union and the United States – would have suffered the damage.
In “Catalogue of Fakes”, there is false news claiming that a major shopping mall in Vilnius has gone bankrupt because Belarusians have stopped travelling there for shopping.
The farmer protests that swept across the European Union in the first half of 2024 were also used to support this narrative. For example, one of the false claims suggests that by halting trade with Russia, the EU has deprived its farmers of substantial earnings. The narrative asserts that Russia was a significant market for European agricultural products before the sanctions. And the restriction of market access has allegedly become a key contributor to farmer discontent.
However, a ban on selling agricultural products from the EU to Russia was introduced ten years ago, and Russia was its initiator. In 2014, in response to sanctions for the Crimea annexation, Vladimir Putin set a food embargo, and it has been extended every year since.
Two years after its introduction, economists from the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation came to the conclusion that the embargo on food supplies from Western countries did not cause significant damage to these states.
Even the case of Paris being infested by bedbugs was exploited to publish a fake screenshot of an alleged article from the French newspaper La Montagne. The false article claimed that the invasion of these insects was caused by the cessation of supplies from Russia to France of the main component of insecticides, which had previously been successfully used against bed bugs.
This propaganda narrative emerges regularly whenever there is a newsworthy event to exploit.
Rewriting History
A constant refrain of false information suggests that Poland has always been an enemy of Belarus, while Russia has been a friend. This narrative is based on the shared history of Poles and Belarusians, when the western part of modern-day Belarus was part of the Polish Republic until 1939. We have identified 7 false stories on this topic over the past year, providing misinformation about events from that historical period.
For example, one Belarusian public figure claimed that Poles have not allowed children living in Belarusian territories to study at school. The situation allegedly improved only after these lands came under Soviet control. Fact-checking showed that even according to Soviet statistics there was a 80% enrolling rate in elementary school in Western Belarus before the Sovietization.
Such false stories tend to emerge more frequently on the eve of commemorative dates. For example, a large number of false claims about Poland and Belarus’ history appeared in September–October last year, when Belarus was celebrating the Day of People’s Unity on September 17. On that day in 1939, the Soviet Union attacked Poland to annex the lands of Western Belarus and Ukraine.
Narratives in 2022–2023
By analysing a false news database and selecting stories from August 2022 to August 2023, we were able to identify shifts in mis/disinformation spreading trends. Thus, one-third of these false news stories targeted European countries, with Poland being the primary focus (38%), followed by Europe’s standard of living (18%), the war theme (10%), and sanctions (3%).
For instance, the main narrative regarding the declining living standards in European countries was that “Europe is in crisis”. This narrative was often used to compare the economic situation in Belarus and to showcase the achievements of the Lukashenko government.
Media outlets, for example, falsely reported that after paying all taxes and deductions, British residents had less money left from their salaries than Belarusians. They also claimed that the inflation rate in Belarus was lower than in Europe and that French people were reselling their Christmas gifts to make some extra-money.
The Belarusian Investigative Center’s database contains 21 fake news stories of this nature. Most of these false narratives were disseminated from the fall of 2022 to the winter of 2023, coinciding with the peak of the energy crisis in the European Union while Belarus experienced significant labour migration to Europe, eventually leading to a worker shortage.
The second popular narrative was the assertion that Europe had morally degraded and abandoned traditional values: according to false content, people were eating human flesh, churches were being demolished, and the UN stood up for the rights of paedophiles. A significant portion of these false news stories were disseminated against the backdrop of the International Criminal Court’s charges against Vladimir Putin for the abduction of Ukrainian children. The peak of the spread of this narrative occurred in the summer of 2023 when Putin personally commented on these accusations, calling them a “blown-up story.”
The war in Ukraine ranked high on the list of most frequently covered topics. Among the three most common disinformation narratives there was the one about ordinary Europeans who did not want to support Ukraine in the war. One variation of this narrative was that Europeans supported neither Ukraine nor Russia; they allegedly were against participating in the war altogether. We spotted eight similar false news stories during this period.
Much less frequent but still relevant was a propaganda claim stating that a significant part of the European population was on Russia’s side in that war. As an example, we can cite a news broadcast aired in September 2022 by the Belarusian state-owned TV channel ONT. It reported that mass rallies in support of Russia took place in Belgrade. However, according to Serbian media, this action was called the “Cross Procession for the Salvation of Serbia” and its goal was to stop the holding of EuroPride in Belgrade, not to support Russia.
False news on this topic often appeared before and after EU and US leaders gathered for events where decisions were made to provide military assistance to Ukraine, or after statements were made about providing such assistance to Ukraine.
Alexander Vostrov, deputy head of the Belarusian Investigation Center
Photo: AI generated image, Tommaso Canetta