Author: Re:Baltica, member of BECID
When several Ukrainian drones crashed in the Baltics two weeks ago, Russian propaganda swiftly pushed a story that Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia had deliberately “opened” their airspace to enable Kiyv to attack Russia.
All three countries deny it. Latvia went further, formally accusing Moscow of a disinformation campaign and demanding a retraction.
Re:Baltica reconstructs how the story spread – and why it carries the fingerprints of coordinated state propaganda.
What happened?
On March 23, Ukraine launched a drone attack on targets in Russia’s Leningrad region, hitting an oil terminal in Ust-Luga and facilities in the port of Primorsk. Soon after, several drones went off course: one crashed in Lithuania near the Belarusian border, another in Latvia’s Krāslava region, and a third struck the chimney of the Auvere power plant in Estonia.
Baltic officials said the drones were Ukrainian and likely deviated due to electronic interference. All three countries treated the incidents as unintended spillover, not a deliberate action.
From Telegram to the media
One of the first mentions of the incident appeared on the small propaganda channel on Telegram, called “Baltic Antifascists” (Антифашисты Прибалтики). At 06:31 (EEST) on March 25, it posted about the downed drones in the Leningrad region and rhetorically asked:
“Now the question: guess where the drones were flying from?”
A little later, the same channel reposted by another channel alleging that Lithuanian Prime minister Inga Ruģiniene is openly lying to cover up the attack on Russia by NATO member states.
The entry mentions:
“The Lithuanian Prime Minister’s statement is a lie. Its purpose is to mask the direct involvement of NATO border states – Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia – in an attack on Russia. In other words, we have a direct casus belli before us.”
Calm beginnings
Coverage on Kremlin-controlled TV was initially restrained. On the morning of March 25, broadcasts focused on the attack itself and reported that Ukrainian drones had crashed in the Baltic states, but they are blaming Russia, not Ukraine, and NATO is doing nothing.
In the evening news on Rossiya 1, a report on President Volodymyr Zelensky’s meeting with Latvian Defence Minister Andris Sprūds noted that Latvia had supplied more than 12,000 drones to Ukraine – adding, with a hint of irony, that one of them now may have crashed in Latvia.
Early on March 26 speculation became more explicit. A commentator on Solovyov Live suggested the drones could have flown via Poland before crossing the Baltics. Around the same time, a map of the crash sites began circulating, prompting speculations on a possible route.
And then came the MASH
The narrative in the Russian media space shifted sharply on the afternoon of March 26, following a post on the Telegram channel by MASH, which has more than three million followers. Published at 16:22, the post stated:
“According to our information, the Ukrainians are using facilities in the Chernihiv region for attacks on the northern capital. For your understanding: 850 km by air and a flight over the Bryansk, Smolensk, Tver, Novgorod and Leningrad regions – reaching the city on the Neva is practically unrealistic.”
The post also claimed:
“Authorities in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have officially opened their airspace to Ukrainian drones.”
It was this phrase that later became the basis for a disinformation campaign.
Mash also published a map depicting the alleged flight path of Ukrainian drones. The route over the Baltic states is marked in red, while an alternative, which the channel claims is unrealistic, is in blue.
Here comes the wave
Less than an hour later, the same interpretation appeared on one of Russia’s main propaganda programs, 60 Minutes on the Rossiya 1 channel. Its host, Olga Skabeyeva, opened with the claim:
“Breaking news: Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian authorities have today officially opened their airspace to Ukrainian drone attacks on St. Petersburg, the Leningrad region and the entire northwestern region of Russia.”
This follows a familiar pattern in Russian propaganda. A message is first seeded on Telegram and then amplified on state television, where it reaches a much wider audience.
The show also showed a new map with the trajectory of Ukrainian drones, which visually resembled the one previously published by MASH .
She also repeated line previously seen in MASH:
“Previously, such overflights were allowed unofficially and in isolated cases, for fear of a response, but now they apparently no longer fear it. The question is — why?”
Shortly afterwards, on Solovyov Live, one of the experts categorically reiterated that the Baltic states had opened their airspace to Ukrainian drones. At the same time, he expressed hope that the Baltics “will not yell too much.”
The next day, on the same program, expert Yuri Knutov complained that Russian air defenses could not easily shoot down the drones because they were flying in from the Baltic states and the distance was too short to catch them in time. He suggested shooting them down over the Baltics.
“This is a very important moment. It will cause panic and hysteria. NATO countries will start talking about invoking Article 5. What is happening now – if it really happens with overflights over the Baltics – already means that NATO has launched direct military actions against Russia without any notification, and these actions are already an escalation.”
Later, the weekly review of the Russian television channel Rossiya 1 with one of the most well-known propagandists, Dmitry Kiselyov, repeated the story of the Baltic states’ allegedly open airspace to Ukrainian drones and their alleged involvement in the war on the side of Ukraine.
The story, citing MASH, was also picked up by other media outlets. It also made its way to official news agencies.
The story was also actively propagated on other social media, including TikTok.
In Estonia, EKRE picks up
The story of did not remain only in the Russian information space.
Delfi described how it was taken up by the Estonian populist party EKRE, using similar lines to Russian propaganda. Tatjana Ždanoka, a former Latvian MEP suspected of collaborating with Russian intelligence, also reflected on the incident, asking, “if these drones ‘got lost’, what was their intended route?” She added another map, stating that one does not have to be a military expert to understand that the route bypassed Russia.
Latvia protests
In the Baltics, Latvia took unusual step to protest officially. First, Defense Ministry spokesperson Guna Gavrilko wrote on X on March 27that Russia had launched a massive information operation against the Baltic states. Later, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) handed Russia an official protest.
Gavrilko explained to Re:Baltica that Latvia and others experience Russian disinformation attacks almost daily, but it was decided to speak up this time due to the campaign’s coordination and reach. It took place on various platforms (media, social networks) and the information was pushed out in several languages. Therefore it was important to alert the media and the international community, she said.
Gavrilko pointed out that a similar denial of permission to use its airspace for Ukrainian drone attacks was also published by the Polish army.
Meanwhile, for the Kremlin the story is still alive. On April 6, MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced that Russia had issued a warning to the Baltic states, adding that “reasonable” actions could prevent escalation – otherwise, “retaliatory measures” might follow.
Latvian MFA denied to Re:Baltica that it had received anything from Russia, calling Zakharova’s remarks part of a broader Russian disinformation narrative.
