IN THIS EDITION
ON THE RISE
Weekly Watch of Emerging Disinformation Risks
Climate Change Denialism, and How to Shoot the Messenger to Ignore the Message
The international scientific community is nearly unanimous in its view that the ongoing climate change is a real phenomenon driven by human activity. Yet every time extreme weather strikes and scientists once again explain it within the framework of global warming, climate misinformation rapidly resurfaces online. The record-breaking heatwave that has hit Europe in recent days is no exception.
As several EU countries grapple with disruption, crisis, and, in some tragic cases, deaths linked to extreme heat, the familiar summer narrative of climate denial is already circulating widely, claiming that “it has always been hot” and that “particularly hot summers have always occurred.” This rhetoric is, unfortunately, often amplified by various political figures. Its winter counterpart, during periods of record cold, typically goes: “See how cold it is? Global warming isn’t real.”
A necessary corollary of this narrative – that nothing particularly unusual is happening – is the accusation that media outlets reporting on record heat are spreading panic or manipulating information. From this claim emerges what has been dubbed “the chromatic change conspiracy theory”.
According to this theory, the meteorological maps broadcasted today, shaded in red to indicate unusually high temperatures, are deliberately designed to induce panic among the public, whereas in the past the same temperatures would have been depicted in green or other less alarming colors. In Austria, Germany and Ireland, claims of this kind have recently been debunked, while an investigation by Maldita published on EDMO in 2022 found that the same type of false narratives had been documented across much of Europe (France, UK, Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, Romania and many others).
The fact that the same misinformation circulating four years ago is still being repeated today should not come as a surprise: the climate denialist minority, like other fringe groups (such as those who deny vaccine efficacy or promote flat-earth theories), is largely resistant to fact-checking and unlikely to evolve in response to evidence. But the rest of the population looks impervious enough to their unfounded claims.
Eurobarometer data on the European population shows that 85% of respondents consider climate change a serious problem for the world, 81% support the EU’s goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, and 88% say it is important for the EU to act to expand renewable energy and improve energy efficiency. Shares that, after taking a fall following the Covid-19 pandemic, are now growing back.
And in general these are significantly high figures, especially when considering the less-than-ideal performance of traditional media (52% of the respondents say they do not provide clear information) and digital platforms (49% report difficulty identifying reliable content on social media) in informing the public. This is even more striking when taking into account the potential impact of recent decisions and messaging from the US administration about climate. While not without supporters in Europe, MAGA-style propaganda appears – at least for now – to have a limited impact on the other side of the Atlantic.
ZOOM-IN
A Closer Look at Cases Detected by the EDMO Network
Humans Have an Impact on Climate Change – Science Has Not Disproved This
The evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming is overwhelming and reflected in the near-unanimous scientific consensus. Demagog.pl explains that this consensus is based on thousands of independent, peer-reviewed studies rather than the opinions of individual researchers and is endorsed by institutions such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), NASA, and other leading scientific institutions.
The article focuses on recent episodes of climate change denialism in Poland, which were steered through selective use of expert opinions and false balance fallacies amplified by certain political actors. It highlights how a small group of Polish commentators and scientists – typically non-climatologists -are cited to challenge the scientific consensus despite representing minority views that are not supported by the broader climate research community. The article stresses that recurring statements by politicians – including by the Law and Justice Party’s leader, Jarosław Kaczyński – foster public confusion about EU climate policies by presenting isolated dissent as evidence of scientific disagreement, while disregarding the extensive body of evidence demonstrating that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the principal driver of contemporary climate change.
Misleading Claims About the Ecological Footprint of Solar Energy
Widely shared social media posts claim that solar power would not be environmentally friendly because manufacturing photovoltaic (PV) systems requires large quantities of silver, aluminium and polysilicon, all of which are energy-intensive to produce. While experts acknowledge that these materials have significant production impacts, they explain that the claim omits essential context.
The analysis by AFP Austria stresses that all electricity generation technologies require materials and infrastructure, but fossil fuel power plants also consume fuel continuously throughout their lifetime, producing ongoing greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, most emissions associated with solar energy occur during manufacturing, installation and end-of-life processing. Once operational, PV systems generate electricity without direct CO₂ emissions. According to experts from the German Environment Agency (UBA), the Austrian Research Institute (OFI), and the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), the life-cycle emissions of solar electricity are roughly 20-50 grams of CO₂ equivalent per kilowatt-hour, compared with 400-500 grams for natural gas, and substantially more for coal.
AFP Austria also notes that the carbon footprint of solar panels depends on where they are manufactured, since production powered by coal-based electricity generates more emissions than production using renewable energy. Nevertheless, even panels produced in countries with carbon-intensive electricity mixes reduce emissions by more than 90% compared with fossil fuel electricity over their operating lifetime. Solar panels typically recover the energy used to manufacture them within about 1.3 years, while lasting 25-30 years. Furthermore, between 85% and 95% of their material mass can be recycled, reducing resource demand and waste. The article concludes that claims portraying solar energy as environmentally harmful rely on selective information and ignore the full life-cycle comparison with fossil fuels, which clearly demonstrates the substantial climate advantages of photovoltaic technology.
Is It True That Air Conditioners Only Heat City Air At Night?
According to a misleading claim circulating on X in France, air conditioners would have no impact in the formation of “urban heat islands” during daytime, nor lead to higher temperatures in urban areas compared to the surrounding rural areas. The claim suggests that the environmental impact of heating systems would have been purposely exaggerated in recent studies because researchers would measure temperature variations exclusively after sunset, when such effects would temporarily emerge.
However, as explained by DeFacto, studies of urban heat islands compare both daytime and nighttime conditions, and consistently find that the warming effect of air conditioners, while more pronounced at night, it is present also during the day. Air conditioners cool indoor spaces by transferring heat outdoors, adding waste heat to the urban environment. During the day, this additional heat is diluted by strong atmospheric mixing and the dominant influence of solar radiation. At night, instead, the atmospheric boundary layer becomes much shallower, trapping heat closer to the ground and making the same waste heat produce a larger increase in local air temperatures. Researchers use this physical explanation to account for the stronger nocturnal effect observed in cities such as Paris, Phoenix and Singapore, while noting exceptions like Tokyo, where coastal conditions can amplify daytime impacts.
The article also explains that scientists often focus on nighttime temperatures because warm nights pose particularly serious health risks, preventing people and buildings from cooling after hot days. Elevated nighttime temperatures are associated with greater heat stress and higher mortality during heatwaves. Although the magnitude of warming varies across neighbourhoods depending on urban design and ventilation, the evidence shows that air conditioners contribute to urban warming both day and night, with the most significant impacts generally occurring after sunset.
ELECTION BEAT
Tracking electoral disinformation through EDMO Hubs
UK Helped Detect Russian Tycoon’s $107M Crypto War Chest Linked to Moldovan Election Interference
A joint Moldovan-British operation that uncovered a US$107 million cryptocurrency network allegedly used by pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor to finance election interference ahead of Moldova’s pivotal 2025 parliamentary election. British financial crime specialists worked with Moldova’s anti-corruption authorities to trace suspicious cryptocurrency flows linked to wallets allegedly controlled by Shor and connected to the Kremlin-backed stablecoin A7A5. Although a request to freeze one of the wallets was unsuccessful because most of the funds had already been moved, investigators regard the operation as a breakthrough in cross-border cooperation against illicit crypto financing.
As revealed by a recent report by Reporter.London and Rise Moldova, the investigation found that cryptocurrency was allegedly used to fund vote-buying, protests, online propaganda and coordinated influence campaigns supporting pro-Russian political interests. Leaked documents and blockchain analysis suggested a sophisticated infrastructure linking cryptocurrency payments, Telegram-based recruitment, activist coordination and disinformation networks. Moldovan prosecutors have connected the wallet to several criminal cases involving illegal election financing, while investigators believe some of the funds originated from A7A5 before being converted into Tether (USDT).
The report highlights growing concern among European policymakers that the methods tested in Moldova could be replicated elsewhere. Experts therefore call for stronger international cooperation, enhanced blockchain analysis capabilities and coordinated legal action to detect and disrupt crypto-enabled influence operations targeting democratic elections.
GLOBAL PULSE
Disinformation narratives shaping the world’s conversations
Is it true that the court in The Hague recognized Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea?
In June 2026, Russia’s Foreign Ministry and state-aligned media claimed that a Hague arbitration court had officially recognized Crimea as part of Russia, with officials like Maria Zakharova and Dmitry Medvedev publicly celebrating the ruling. The claim spread widely across Russian outlets and Telegram channels.
In reality, the case stemmed from a 2016 Ukrainian lawsuit under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, concerning Russian actions in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and Kerch Strait following the annexation of Crimea — including the Kerch Bridge’s construction and its effects on navigation and the environment. The tribunal explicitly stated that Crimea’s sovereignty fell outside its jurisdiction and was never ruled on.
While some Ukrainian claims were rejected for insufficient evidence or lack of jurisdiction, the court described the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait as internal waters shared by both Russia and Ukraine, not exclusively Russian, and found Russia had violated environmental assessment obligations during the bridge’s construction, though it wasn’t ordered to pay compensation or alter the bridge. Therefore, the claim was false.
Have 250,000 girls been sexually abused by immigrant gangs in Britain?
Trigger warning: please note that this snippet and article contain explicit mentions of sexual assault.
A study by English right-wing politician Rupert Lowe has sparked debate on social media, reaching Denmark. The report contains testimonies from women and girls subjected to sexual assault, citing up to 250,000 victims of “grooming gangs”: a term for gangs with a predominantly immigrant background.
The number isn’t based on any national register or survey. It originated with Lord Malcolm Pearson in a 2018 debate, who calculated it by taking abuse cases from three cities, Rotherham, Telford, and Oxford, and extrapolating them nationwide. Crucially, those local figures counted the broader category of “Child Sexual Exploitation,” not specifically grooming gang victims, and included abuse regardless of perpetrators’ ethnicity, including online and familial cases.
Fact-checkers like Full Fact criticize applying hotspot-city data nationally as statistically unreliable. British authorities admit the true scale remains unknown due to inconsistent data, as the latest figures (2023) recorded just 700 group-based CSE offences, far below Lowe’s claim.
Is it true that 85% of refugees are Muslims and that Muslim countries do not accept them?
A claim widely circulated on social media alleges that 85% of the world’s refugees are Muslims and that Muslim-majority countries refuse to accept them. The article by Delfi notes that both assertions are false or unsupported by any credible statistical source. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the primary global authority on refugee statistics, does not collect data on refugees’ religious affiliation. As a result, there is no reliable basis for stating that 85% of refugees are Muslim. The composition of refugee populations varies significantly, with many refugees originating from countries such as Ukraine and Venezuela, whose populations are predominantly Christian.
The article also rejects the claim that Muslim-majority countries do not host refugees. It points out that several of the world’s largest refugee-hosting countries – including Turkey, Iran and Pakistan – are Muslim-majority states that have received millions of refugees, primarily from neighbouring countries.
New AI Video Generator based on Google Gemini can easily transform false clams into hyper realistic videos
An analysis conducted by Newsguard examines how Google’s latest AI-powered video generator, integrated into Gemini, can be used to create highly realistic videos based on false or misleading claims. It demonstrates that users can generate convincing clips depicting fabricated events, manipulated public figures or fictitious news reports with relatively simple prompts, raising concerns about the growing accessibility of synthetic media.
The article argues that technology significantly lowers the barriers to producing persuasive disinformation by enabling users with little technical expertise to create viral, high-quality videos. It illustrates this risk through examples of AI-generated content that mimics news reporting or depicts events that never occurred, making it increasingly difficult for audiences to distinguish authentic footage from fabricated material.
While Google has introduced safeguards intended to prevent harmful uses and to identify AI-generated content, Newsguard notes that these protections are not always effective. It concludes that the rapid improvement of generative AI tools underscores the need for stronger detection technologies, media literacy, transparent content labelling and responsible platform governance to limit the spread of AI-generated misinformation while preserving the benefits of innovative creative tools.
ON A DIFFERENT NOTE
Member States shall ensure that video-sharing platform providers under their jurisdiction take appropriate measures to protect: (a) minors from programmes, user-generated videos and audiovisual commercial communications which may impair their physical, mental or moral development
Paolo Cesarini, Editorial Director
Tommaso Canetta, Editor-in Chief
Editorial Staff include Elena Coden, Paula Gori, Elena Maggi
This edition draws in part on automated translation and reflects information available as of 2 July 2026. Later developments may not be included.
